Monday, September 9, 2013

flinflan wants to share a link with you

Same issues elsewhere - the argument of where does government's role end?

http://www.heritage.org/research/testimony/2013/09/spurring-investment-in-americas-clean-energy-technology

From the Guardian: The wealthy 'make mistakes', the poor go to jail | Chris Arnade

flinflan thought you might be interested in this link from the Guardian: The wealthy 'make mistakes', the poor go to jail | Chris Arnade

I left my Wall Street trader job and began photographing drug addicts in NYC. These two worlds have entirely different rules

Chris Arnade

Sunday 8 September 2013

theguardian.com

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/08/wall-street-versus-poor-in-america

----

I knew him as "Mr one-glove". The origins of his nickname were cloudy, but had to do with his legendary stinginess. He had just lost his company close to $1bn betting on mortgages. That company, facing massive losses from him and other traders, had only staved off bankruptcy because of the grace of the government.

It was late in 2008 and Mr one-glove had joined us at a bar, a group of disparate Wall Street traders united in an attempt to drink away a bad year. Near the end of the night, Mr one-glove leaned into the table of beers, and asked,

Do you think we will get paid well this year?


Mr one-glove was not somebody who trafficked in irony. Despite the massive loss, despite his company being bailed out, Mr one-glove didn't get fired, nor did he lose any of his wealth. No, Mr one-glove got paid well. Not by his standards, since he did not get a year-end bonus, just his salary of around $300,000. Mr one-glove was unhappy with that.

Nearly five years later, my life was very different. I left my Wall Street job to start a photo project documenting the lives of addicts in the Hunts Point section of the Bronx, New York City's poorest neighborhood.

A year ago I sat with one my new friends, Takeesha, at a small table in a visiting room in Rikers Island jail. Takeesha was in Rikers for possession of a needle and for intent to sell. Or maybe this time it was for prostitution. Takeesha is often in Rikers. Near the end of our conversation, Takeesha leaned into the table and asked,

Do you think I will get out this year?

Takeesha drug addict NYC
Takeesha in her apartment in the Bronx section of New York City. Photograph: Chris Arnade

Takeesha did not end up getting out; she spent another two months, held a total of four months, for a variety of charges that almost all ended up being dropped.

Takeesha was raped at 11-years-old, by a family member, and pimped by another family member at 13. She ran away at 15. She has worked the last 25 years as a prostitute in Hunts Point and is addicted to both heroin and crack. Her story is not different from many homeless addicts I have gotten to know: childhood trauma, often sexual abuse, followed by rejection by the family, followed by addiction, and then, almost always for the women, followed by prostitution.

Mr one-glove is not that different from many whom I met on Wall Street over my 20 career. He had upper middle class parents, was college educated, got an MBA, followed by a demanding high-paying job that became his identity.

What have I learned from knowing both Mr one-glove and Takeesha? Here's my one-line answer:

When you're wealthy you make mistakes. When you are poor you go to jail.

Yes, it is like comparing apples and oranges. That is the point though. We have built two very different societies with two very different sets of values. Takeesha was born into a world with limited opportunities, one where the black market has filled the void. In her world transgressions are resolved via violence, not lawyers. The law as applied to her is simple and stark, with little wiggle room.

Mr one-glove was born into a world with many options. The laws of his land are open for interpretation, and with the right lawyer one can navigate in the vast grey area and never do anything wrong. The rules are often written by and for Mr one-glove and his friends.

No, Mr one-glove did not break any laws. Not explicitly, although in 2008, he helped to bankrupt a company that helped to almost bankrupt the global economy. Rather, he spent his adult life moving numbers around on spreadsheets and betting on other numbers. Over his entire career, he has probably lost more money than he made, with the hole from 2008 swallowing any prior profits. For that he has been very richly rewarded. Tens of millions of dollars rewarded.

Takeesha has broken many laws, none open for interpretation. You use drugs (well, not prescription drugs), you go to jail. You sell your body for sex, you go to jail. You can paint a narrative where young Takeesha shakes off her rape at 11, shakes off being sold on the streets at 13, and rallies. She finds the right foster family, takes advantage of the social services offered, and graduates from high school or at least gets her GED equivalent, then goes to college and moves well beyond her past.

Maybe she even ends up in banking, with her juvenile record forgiven. You can paint that story, but it's a fairy tale.

Mr one-glove would probably not approve of Takeesha. He felt everyone makes his own path in life, that raising his taxes to help the poor was encouraging a lifetime of sloth. To him, poverty was because of a lack of trying, a lack of working as hard as he had. Many successful professionals, who forget their benign youth, share that attitude.

Poverty and addiction have a thousand mothers, none of them sloth. Surviving the streets and hustling for the next fix is some of the hardest work around. Takeesha would probably say about Mr one-glove what another addict said with admiration, when hearing about my Wall Street life: "You made tricky money in a tricky world."

Mr one-glove eventually left his company. He is still working somewhere in finance, putting together another portfolio of mortgages using borrowed money.

Takeesha is still out on the streets, charging $50 for men to have sex with her. Or maybe she is in jail. I have to check weekly to see which it is.

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Thursday, June 27, 2013

Apa lagi aku mau (2) - Rethinking priorities


  1. So now, with personal net worth targets achieved, what then? That has come at great personal cost. But at the same time, it has taught me the valuable lesson of paying for wanting something. Would it then be desirable to pay for my children's education to get a feeling of self-worth? Or is that cutting off nose to spite the (abused) system? Where is the sense of nobility and pride?
  2. So, then it is about having the comfort to do what gives personal happiness. Is it about raising children to their best potential? Is it about giving wife the avenues to pursue own trails - whether in career or in life? Is it about giving comfort to mother in her old years? Is it about clearing up all  outstanding items in life? Is it about not taking orders and being in a rush from day to day and assignment to assignment and fulfilling other people's priorities? Is it about taking one step at a time and smelling the roses, the coffee and whatever else? Or about focusing on what helps the community the best way that I can?
  3. But how then do I square it with the materialistic dimension of making enough dosh to pay for all  that I wish to have? In short, how do I have it all?
  4. A prologue to this is that we already have enough for our subsistence now. The next phase is about self-actualisation. Now I do need to decide who is in most need of this now. I can't be selfish and only think of my needs. Son needs dosh for his uni. So does daughter in just two years after that. I shall not touch the kepok as that gives the maneouverability for wife. 
  5. Basically, if I were to step out and have my own venture, it should be making enough to cover for basic expenses. But I can't stop there as it needs to cover for educational expenses pretty soon too. So, the priority has to be calibrated right. Otherwise, it's replacing one misplaced priority for another.
  6. Fertigation looks like a worthwhile investment to make now. As does gaharu. This should give some free cashflows over the medium to long-term at relatively low downside risk insyaAllah, but would need to be carefully monitored and cultivated to ensure highest premiums are secured. Other investments into equity and property will also need to be made.
  7. In the meantime, need to chalk up the green company up pretty soon. Branding and finalising business model is next.
  8. All this of course, subject to this not impeding growth and development needs of others.

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Apa lagi aku mau?


  1. Many events I went through in the last 5 years of a personal transformation plan created and executed back in 2007 has given me tremendous learnings and deep experience building on a personal scale. Some of the top of my head will be (i) societal biases (ii) personal priorities, leading to next steps.
Dasar Ekonomi Yang Lagi Baru?
  1. Firstly, cutting off the sheltered world of low risk GLC job and entering a mad dog world of private sector. These are people fighting for their economic future, and they are not shy to use whatever they have at their disposal to obtain it. My perception - looking at the post GE13 trends for these people - Practise racism, but jump at others for doing it.
  2. The economy is slanted towards Malaysian Chinese - no bones about it. Local blogs have been throwing the 90% tax indicator paid by Chinese - (no idea where this number came from given that Petronas is like paying the bulk of government revenues, and only 26% of the population are chinese. In which case, there's a whole lot of Bumis who are in poverty or non-tax paying population, and therefore a lot more work is required to alleviate this). My working experience in the private sector proves how painfully true this is. Need an external support, call up an external services provider for a quality and pricing that you want - and chances are the Chinese contractors / service providers will deliver. Easy way is to blame / point towards the superiority of the culture and mentality of one race over the other. The reality may not be so straightforward. I am more inclined to a policy of a selected meritocracy of Bumi service providers, a white-list perhaps of service-oriented Bumis, not rent-seeking Datuk Seris in their Beemers and Mercs wanting a slice of the budgetted allocation of a business. In anyways, there are already shameless non-Malay businesses who are learning the language of rent-seeking as the easy way out. Shame these unethical cultural problems, but do not tie this to the colour of a skin. 
  3. So what of the DEB? Creating crutches or mollycoddling? The difference is with the application. Use it as sweeteners and refuse to allow the beneficiaries to raise themselves out of the mire, and the income gap and later the capability gaps will widen. The Malays have no other means to further themselves other than to work themselves out of the crutches and subsidy system. Anyone wanting to start a business - learn the ropes and then make sure that you choose the most rational choices you can, not the easiest ones. If you are capable, but still want to have the lot of the poor, shame on you too.
  4. Malays in innovation sectors should be given support as these are the game changers. So, when GLICs are given an allocation, what should they do with the allocation? How should they invest? What is the long-term strategy to develop the malays? Or, are they the ones who are helped and forget about the rest?
  5. To all intents, Ekuinas seems to be on the right track as regards to deployment of capital towards operational investment for the benefits of Bumiputras. Teraju is building a database of Bumi companies. How these certified or white-listed companies will benefit from the wider economy is still unclear. Just how do you mainstream the Bumi economy to the wider economy then? The creation of new ambitious businesses that build and thrive on the wider economy is needed. But again, the plan on paper is just so much easier than deploying the idea.
  6. On a personal scale, the Malay entrepreneur needs to walk, talk and think as if he is a humble immigrant, and not to exhibit a distasteful ketuanan mentality. To get respect, you will need to earn it. Talk humbly, listen, articulate concerns well. Then, you may have a chance. Accept defeats, accept loss of face and do not be arrogant.

Friday, June 7, 2013

Biogreentech: engineering the systems to make it work


  1. One way to engineer the whole biogreentech space to take on the established supply chains existing in the downstream petchem industry is to develop whole value chains to make it feasible in its later-stage commercialisation phase, assuming the technological hindrances have been ironed out.
  2. Feedstock systems is one, biocatalysts is another. Market access. Capital and financing systems for scaleup commercial plants. Investors with patience to endure false starts, a few of them (investors and to minimise false starts)
  3. Strategic investors are just too important to get this right, eg O&G NOCs or large plantation companies with large amounts of heft and willingness to forgo immediate returns for potential first-mover advantages. (though it seems setup that a follower model is perhaps a more prudent strategy to derive margins and build cost advantages - say the AirAsia model)
  4. The high barriers of entry make it a small playground of players though. How do you make the risks seem insignificant to the benefits?



Biogreentech opportunities for Malaysia

1. Assessment of biogreentech opportunities
1.1 There are multiple pathways  for obtaining either drop-in biofuel or specialty biorenewables, the next step from the now outdated first-gen biofuel production of ethanol or blended fuels. The corrosive nature and the requirements for government regulatory mechanisms to create an artificial market has caused innovators to look at increased premium margins in eating into the lucrative downstream petchem applications.

1.2 Innovation in process flows looks at enabling production efficiency and effectiveness to give competitive advantages, although IPs are still a valuable source of building a competitive business model ala Lanzatech. For investors, it is necessary to validate claims of competitive advantages, as market domination of a particular biogreentech production material gives de facto or de jure standards to a market searching for an alternative to O&G dependence. Securing significant market access is good, and one that is not naturally dependent on an artificially induced market driven by government regulatory mechanisms and subsidies.

1.3 Having said that, at the infancy stage, it is perhaps impossible for alternative biogreentech products to achieve cost parity to that of the fairly established supply chain in using the conventional O&G pathways. Add into the mix possible lowering of costs with newer techniques of fracking for shale gas and the scenarios get a little bit dimmer. Supply side enhancements may keep oil prices within a lesser volatility range from previous decades arising from the changing geopolitical interests of the US. (ie I do expect the US to stop eyeing other oil-producing countries as military chessboards) Previous volatility at peak oil prices provided some impetus to the alternative markets and there will be some weakening of willpower to the 'alternatives' lobby. 

1.4 Having said that, the gas 'boom' driven by shale gas may actually assist KIOR, Amyris, Gevo(?) that can utilise cheaper gas to drive its production. Sensitivity may vary, as cost structure stacks up highly for the feedstocks, and the 10&-20% lower variation in gas pricing may not necessarily be an effective game-changer for the alternatives to lower product pricing and maintain much-needed margins.

1.5 Snide remark that it has been over 40 years of renewables lobbying to displace the oil majors, and the domination has been even more entrenched now that the oil majors have added their capacity to absorb variability in oil prices in maintaining supply to economic demand requirements. Won't be easy to displace the oil majors, eh? So, what was that with Shell co-investing in Codexis and then deciding it's no big deal to reprioritise when the macro-drivers change?


2. Regulatory story
2.1 The questions then are: how long and how much will it cost the government to maintain support before the alternatives gain self-sufficiency? Interesting that Bio lobby has bent over in praising the US Congress with whatever they are coming up with in terms of RFS, no matter how uncertain the regulatory outcome will appear.

3. Investing story, and national interests
3.1 How would a small, open economy deal with these changes? Government support should lrgely be based on economic growth driven by enhanced environmental sustainability. But that's too naive. Other economic spinoffs, multipliers need to be formulated before supporting these industries. What of potential benefits to existing corporate ventures, or NOCs?

3.2 It is quite possible that the innovations will continue and will come from the traditional powerhouses say the US due to ability to sustain the early-stage technological breakthroughs. The downside for say Malaysia is how do you then tap into that market while incurring increased risks of currency outflow, potential limited displacement capability wrt O&G downstream industries, feedstock supply and pricing issues and even in the case of Gevo, scaleup technology risks?

3.3 It is quite possible to look at the investments and come to a conclusion that NOCs are the only sort of players able to undertake the huge capacity and financial risks in this sort of venture, leaving the VC/PE investor as the means to access and assess the feasible biogreentech venture for the NOCs to consider.

3.4 Then it comes to what sort of IRRs will make sense, in light of potentially lower or stagnating suppport for these industries. What sort of capacities are required to bring these investments to commercial markets? In the current depressed state of the advanced biofuels share prices due to a lack of direction from the US regulators, shouldn't this be an opportunity to advance using the depressed pricing by averaging down costs, or is this doubling-down potentially giving the investors an even more severe outcome than what it is currently?




Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Personal Charter

Just thot I'd need to post this in a public space:

PERSONAL CHARTER


April 5, 2011


Realising that secular objectives, no matter how interim, is both misplaced and destructive, that I shall strive insyaAllah and with Allah’s guidance, to fulfill my fullest potential, and also to bear responsibility of realising the potential of those under my care, which includes my wife and children, and be the most positive influence I can be to others that I come into contact with, to benefit the purpose that Allah has given to His creation.



September 18, 2009; 28 Ramadhan 1430H

For the next 5 years, my financial planning mission shall be:

  • Benefactor to others

  • Work only for a worthy cause 
  • Secure dependents

  • 1 Jan 2007 (with minor edits)

    • I will ensure my life and my family will live a life of integrity according to values approved by Islam and social order;

  • I will be determined in ensuring we reach that goal while at the same time ensuring my parents are safeguarded;
  • including my wife and children; and our relations


    • I will have determination that I build up through persistence and tenacity;

  • I will pursue those goals with bravery and courage, and not be stopped by fear

    • I will pray that Allah protects my objective and makes it easy

  • I will also have understanding and tolerance for other people's viewpoints, perspectives, problems, concerns, and make it my own


    • I will use my rational thought coupled with hope and prayer to its fullest ability and find the opportunities that life brings for the betterment of this life